This part requires the construction of a decision tree to analyze the decision problem if the consultant is hired. The template of this decision three is provided in the worksheet Tree diagram. The inputs needed are highlighted with different colors and these include the conditional probabilities

Assignment 7 Rubric (60 points)

Tutorials videos

https://youtu.be/9re2LZpEzyc

https://youtu.be/h9rASvjXxhI

https://youtu.be/r7HEKtockRs

https://youtu.be/RRrBzAd2pxs

 

Problem 9 (25 points)

This problem consists of parts a-e. For each part provide the corresponding payoff matrix (5 of them, 2 points each) and clearly indicate the decision (5 decisions, 3 points each).

Problem 10 (25 points)

For this problem refer to the “Assignment 7 Problem 10” Excel file posted in the Week 7 folder.

  1. Complete the worksheet “a) Cond. Prob.” as explained on pages 521-523 of the book. (5 points)
  2. Provide the EMV of the optimal decision without the consultant’s assistance. (5 points).
  3. This part requires the construction of a decision tree to analyze the decision problem if the consultant is hired. The template of this decision three is provided in the worksheet “Tree diagram”. The inputs needed are highlighted with different colors and these include the conditional probabilities from part a, the payoffs from problem 9 and the probabilities that the consultant forecasts low, medium and high demands. Once you complete the tree diagram with these numbers, it will automatically provide the EMV with the consultant’s assistance (part d). You do not need any additional software to complete this assignment. (5 points).
  4. Provide the EMV with the consultant’s assistance from part c). (5 points).
  5. Provide the maximum price Morley should be willing to pay the consultant. (5 points)

Problem 11 (10 points)

  1. Provide the payoff matrix showing utility values (5 points).
  2. Provide the decision with the largest expected utility (5 points).

 

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